Is India’s GDP $4 Trillion Already? Not yet, But it’s Closer Than Ever

Is India’s GDP $4 Trillion Already? Not yet, But it's Closer Than Ever

A piece of news went viral this Sunday, claiming India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) had reached $4 Trillion. However, major news outlets have refuted the claims. This may seem like a roller coaster ride with news of high joys and its imminent refusal. But there’s some good news too. Although India’s GDP number hasn’t crossed $4 Trillion as of now, it’s closer than it ever was. Let’s dive into this news and analyze India’s growth journey and how they will reach the landmark of $4 Trillion shortly. 

India’s GDP Growth in F.Y. 22-23 

India’s Nominal GDP or GDP at current prices for the F.Y. 22-23 was estimated to attain a level of INR 272.41 lakh crores showcasing a growth of 16.1%. The numbers for the subsequent F.Y. 21-22 period was INR 234.71 lakh crores. This helped grow the GDP to $3.3 Trillion. 

Also read: India Solidifies Its Position as the Most Preferred Emerging Market: Morgan Stanley

India’s Projected GDP Growth for F.Y. 23-24: Will it cross $4 Trillion?

As per the Budget estimates, India’s nominal GDP is expected to grow at 10.5% from the previous fiscal year. That amounts to $3.6 Trillion. The numbers for the July-September Quarter 2023 will be released on November 31, 2023, and will add more light to the context of India’s growing GDP. 

When will India’s GDP reach $4 Trillion? 

Current projects by the PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry have forecasted India to reach the $4 Trillion GDP mark by F.Y. 24-25. Similarly, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecasted India to reach the $4.2 Trillion mark by 2025. 

In a recent report by S&P Global Ratings, India’s economic prospects are expected to grow at 6 to 7.1% for the upcoming 2024-26. The report also highlighted that global uncertainties will have less impact on the Indian economy. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has also projected the Indian economy to grow at a rate of 6.5% for the next two cycles, F.Y. 23-24 and F.Y. 24-25.

Also read: Top 5 Key Takeaways for NRIs from Mirae Asset Mutual Fund Economic Outlook 2023

What does the future of Indian economy look like? 

Citing IMF’s estimates, India is likely to emerge as the fourth-largest economy by 2026 surpassing Japan. It is also likely to surpass Germany to take over as the third-largest economy with its GDP crossing $5 Trillion by 2027. This means India will need to attain a growth rate of 6.5% to reach its milestone by 2026 and 2027 respectively. As aforementioned, RBI has already projected the growth for the upcoming two fiscal years at 6.5%, this bodes well for the growth of the Indian economy.

Also read: Top 5 Reasons to Invest in India Now

Is it the right time to Invest in India? 

The trajectory of India’s economic growth presents a promising outlook, with the nation inching closer to the significant milestone of a $4 trillion GDP. The tangible growth witnessed in the F.Y. 22-23, coupled with optimistic projections for the F.Y. 23-24, instills confidence in India’s economic potential. As the nation navigates global uncertainties with resilience, prospective investors may find the current scenario conducive to participating in India’s economic growth story.

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