A piece of news went viral this Sunday, claiming India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) had reached $4 Trillion. However, major news outlets have refuted the claims. This may seem like a roller coaster ride with news of high joys and its imminent refusal. But there’s some good news too. Although India’s GDP number hasn’t crossed $4 Trillion as of now, it’s closer than it ever was. Let’s dive into this news and analyze India’s growth journey and how they will reach the landmark of $4 Trillion shortly.
India’s GDP Growth in F.Y. 22-23
India’s Nominal GDP or GDP at current prices for the F.Y. 22-23 was estimated to attain a level of INR 272.41 lakh crores showcasing a growth of 16.1%. The numbers for the subsequent F.Y. 21-22 period was INR 234.71 lakh crores. This helped grow the GDP to $3.3 Trillion.
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India’s Projected GDP Growth for F.Y. 23-24: Will it cross $4 Trillion?
As per the Budget estimates, India’s nominal GDP is expected to grow at 10.5% from the previous fiscal year. That amounts to $3.6 Trillion. The numbers for the July-September Quarter 2023 will be released on November 31, 2023, and will add more light to the context of India’s growing GDP.
When will India’s GDP reach $4 Trillion?
Current projects by the PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry have forecasted India to reach the $4 Trillion GDP mark by F.Y. 24-25. Similarly, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecasted India to reach the $4.2 Trillion mark by 2025.
In a recent report by S&P Global Ratings, India’s economic prospects are expected to grow at 6 to 7.1% for the upcoming 2024-26. The report also highlighted that global uncertainties will have less impact on the Indian economy. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has also projected the Indian economy to grow at a rate of 6.5% for the next two cycles, F.Y. 23-24 and F.Y. 24-25.
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What does the future of Indian economy look like?
Citing IMF’s estimates, India is likely to emerge as the fourth-largest economy by 2026 surpassing Japan. It is also likely to surpass Germany to take over as the third-largest economy with its GDP crossing $5 Trillion by 2027. This means India will need to attain a growth rate of 6.5% to reach its milestone by 2026 and 2027 respectively. As aforementioned, RBI has already projected the growth for the upcoming two fiscal years at 6.5%, this bodes well for the growth of the Indian economy.
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Is it the right time to Invest in India?
The trajectory of India’s economic growth presents a promising outlook, with the nation inching closer to the significant milestone of a $4 trillion GDP. The tangible growth witnessed in the F.Y. 22-23, coupled with optimistic projections for the F.Y. 23-24, instills confidence in India’s economic potential. As the nation navigates global uncertainties with resilience, prospective investors may find the current scenario conducive to participating in India’s economic growth story.
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